Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 21 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 233 at 05:49 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 233 DEN 05:49 → LAX 07:12 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2106 DEN 19:39 → LAX 21:04 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 233 Southwest	DEN 05:49	LAX 07:12	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1254 Southwest	DEN 08:52	LAX 10:32	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 2002 Delta Flight history →	DEN 07:31	LAX 09:00	12%	3%	0.6%	90%
UA 1638 United Flight history →	DEN 08:00	LAX 09:32	13%	3%	0.6%	93%
F9 2341 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 13:06	LAX 14:46	13%	4%	0.7%	90%
DL 2148 Delta Flight history →	DEN 12:23	LAX 13:50	13%	5%	0.6%	78%
OO 4948 SkyWest	DEN 18:11	LAX 19:58	14%	7%	0.6%	no record
AA 6376 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 11:06	LAX 12:51	14%	5%	0.5%	93%
UA 405 United Flight history →	DEN 10:02	LAX 11:34	14%	3%	0.6%	91%
UA 1195 United Flight history →	DEN 15:43	LAX 17:15	15%	7%	0.6%	83%
F9 4339 Frontier	DEN 22:39	LAX 00:15	15%	5%	0.7%	no record
OO 208 SkyWest	DEN 07:23	LAX 08:50	16%	4%	0.5%	no record
UA 774 United Flight history →	DEN 13:26	LAX 14:57	16%	5%	0.6%	91%
DL 2176 Delta Flight history →	DEN 19:57	LAX 21:30	16%	6%	0.7%	67%
UA 1013 United Flight history →	DEN 11:45	LAX 13:17	17%	5%	0.6%	87%
B6 9013 JetBlue	DEN 01:58	LAX 03:26	18%	6%	1.0%	no record
WN 3413 Southwest	DEN 15:49	LAX 17:13	22%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 3901 United	DEN 17:04	LAX 18:27	22%	8%	0.6%	no record
UA 1753 United	DEN 17:44	LAX 19:16	23%	8%	0.5%	no record
UA 1460 United	DEN 19:35	LAX 20:57	24%	7%	0.6%	no record
WN 2106 Southwest	DEN 19:39	LAX 21:04	28%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON