Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 398 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–28%.

Safest bet that day DL 398 DEN 07:10 → LGA 12:52 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest WN 2320 DEN 17:22 → LGA 23:18 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 398 Delta Flight history →	DEN 07:10	LGA 12:52	8%	3%	0.9%	87%
UA 1442 United Flight history →	DEN 08:03	LGA 13:57	9%	4%	0.8%	89%
UA 2446 United Flight history →	DEN 09:49	LGA 15:46	13%	5%	0.7%	83%
DL 751 Delta Flight history →	DEN 12:58	LGA 18:45	15%	6%	1.0%	80%
UA 1579 United Flight history →	DEN 13:59	LGA 19:53	16%	7%	0.6%	71%
UA 2033 United Flight history →	DEN 17:20	LGA 23:13	18%	7%	0.6%	60%
WN 2523 Southwest	DEN 11:02	LGA 16:48	25%	6%	0.8%	no record
WN 2320 Southwest	DEN 17:22	LGA 23:18	28%	7%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON