Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1655 at 08:57 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 1655 Southwest	DEN 08:57	LGB 10:31	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1657 Southwest	DEN 19:19	LGB 20:45	17%	4%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Long Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Long Beach is 1 h behind Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DEN 07:05 → SLC 08:36DL 1581	2h 29m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:05 → LGB 11:59DL 1116	5h 54m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	DEN 18:11 → SLC 19:48DL 1623	53m Salt Lake City	SLC 20:41 → LGB 21:40DL 1167	4h 29m	78%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON