Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via SFO, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Lihue on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 2307 United Flight history →	DEN 12:00	LIH 15:37	18%	5%	0.6%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Lihue on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Lihue is 4 h behind Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	DEN 05:15 → SFO 06:53UA 2367	1h 51m San Francisco	SFO 08:44 → LIH 11:37UA 1111	10h 22m	99%	88%
United Details →	DEN 11:20 → SFO 13:04UA 1561	3h 51m San Francisco	SFO 16:55 → LIH 19:42UA 1684	12h 22m	99%	81%
American Details →	DEN 07:13 → PHX 08:08AA 1404	3h 04m Phoenix	PHX 11:12 → LIH 15:13AA 697	12h 00m	98%	70%
Alaska Details →	DEN 07:05 → SEA 08:51AS 317	2h 37m Seattle	SEA 11:28 → LIH 14:40AS 258	11h 35m	100%	66%
Delta Details →	DEN 12:23 → LAX 13:50DL 2148	55m Los Angeles	LAX 14:45 → LIH 17:41DL 428	9h 18m	82%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON