Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 5760 at 13:20 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–29%.

Safest bet that day UA 5760 DEN 13:20 → LIT 16:42 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest UA 8170 DEN 17:49 → LIT 20:57 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5760 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 13:20	LIT 16:42	16%	6%	0.6%	88%
UA 5369 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 09:35	LIT 12:54	16%	5%	0.6%	89%
WN 737 Southwest	DEN 13:02	LIT 16:11	17%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 8170 United	DEN 17:49	LIT 20:57	29%	9%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON