Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 5333 at 10:05 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–29%.

Safest bet that day UA 5333 DEN 10:05 → MAF 12:59 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest WN 2400 DEN 17:37 → MAF 20:26 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5333 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 10:05	MAF 12:59	15%	4%	0.8%	86%
OO 394 SkyWest	DEN 14:05	MAF 16:55	18%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 2400 Southwest	DEN 17:37	MAF 20:26	29%	5%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON