Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1661 at 08:42 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 1661 DEN 08:42 → MCI 11:25 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 163 DEN 17:22 → MCI 20:05 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1661 Southwest	DEN 08:42	MCI 11:25	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 2512 Southwest	DEN 10:57	MCI 13:40	10%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 2159 United Flight history →	DEN 09:50	MCI 12:38	11%	2%	0.6%	88%
WN 3987 Southwest	DEN 12:52	MCI 15:35	13%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 586 United Flight history →	DEN 13:40	MCI 16:22	16%	4%	0.6%	88%
WN 1514 Southwest	DEN 15:07	MCI 17:50	18%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1596 United Flight history →	DEN 20:40	MCI 23:25	20%	6%	0.6%	67%
UA 2793 United Flight history →	DEN 18:30	MCI 21:18	24%	8%	0.6%	56%
F9 3376 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 17:14	MCI 20:15	24%	7%	0.8%	83%
WN 163 Southwest	DEN 17:22	MCI 20:05	28%	4%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON