Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1437 at 05:59 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–26%.

Safest bet that day UA 1437 DEN 05:59 → MCO 11:46 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1671 DEN 17:12 → MCO 22:46 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1437 United	DEN 05:59	MCO 11:46	7%	2%	4.7%	no record
WN 1667 Southwest	DEN 04:51	MCO 10:20	9%	1%	5.4%	no record
F9 4646 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 06:00	MCO 11:47	9%	3%	5.7%	86%
WN 1672 Southwest	DEN 00:13	MCO 05:31	9%	2%	10.3%	no record
UA 2292 United Flight history →	DEN 08:10	MCO 13:57	13%	4%	4.6%	89%
WN 4053 Southwest	DEN 08:47	MCO 14:21	13%	3%	4.7%	no record
UA 2354 United Flight history →	DEN 10:10	MCO 16:04	18%	6%	1.4%	85%
UA 501 United Flight history →	DEN 13:48	MCO 19:39	18%	8%	1.4%	73%
F9 2520 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 19:22	MCO 01:11	19%	8%	1.8%	68%
WN 1669 Southwest	DEN 10:27	MCO 16:06	19%	4%	1.5%	no record
UA 259 United Flight history →	DEN 17:52	MCO 23:41	19%	6%	0.9%	78%
WN 2137 Southwest	DEN 14:37	MCO 20:11	24%	5%	1.5%	no record
WN 1671 Southwest	DEN 17:12	MCO 22:46	26%	5%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON