Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 25–30% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 337 United Flight history →	DEN 11:20	MFR 13:05	25%	5%	0.6%	75%
UA 663 United Flight history →	DEN 19:23	MFR 21:09	30%	6%	0.6%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Medford on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Medford is 1 h behind Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DEN 07:05 → SLC 08:36DL 1581	2h 09m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → MFR 11:40DL 3806 · flown by SkyWest	5h 35m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	DEN 18:11 → SLC 19:48DL 1623	1h 52m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:40 → MFR 22:32DL 3722 · flown by SkyWest	5h 21m	92%	83%
Delta Details →	DEN 06:30 → SEA 08:26DL 1731	2h 49m Seattle	SEA 11:15 → MFR 12:56DL 3779 · flown by SkyWest	7h 26m	99%	76%
United Details →	DEN 11:20 → SFO 13:04UA 1561	3h 43m San Francisco	SFO 16:47 → MFR 18:13UA 1001	7h 53m	99%	74%
United Details →	DEN 05:15 → SFO 06:53UA 2367	3h 44m San Francisco	SFO 10:37 → MFR 12:04UA 2322	7h 49m	100%	70%
American Details →	DEN 12:16 → PHX 13:06AA 2602	3h 48m Phoenix	PHX 16:54 → MFR 19:29AA 6373 · flown by SkyWest	8h 13m	94%	66%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DEN 18:39 → SEA 20:41DL 2543	54m Seattle	SEA 21:35 → MFR 23:11DL 3954 · flown by SkyWest	5h 32m	56%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON