Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1418 at 09:52 is the safest bet, 23% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–27%.

Safest bet that day UA 1418 DEN 09:52 → MIA 16:00 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest AA 1310 DEN 12:23 → MIA 18:30 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1418 United Flight history →	DEN 09:52	MIA 16:00	23%	5%	0.6%	76%
AA 1292 American	DEN 00:15	MIA 05:51	24%	5%	0.8%	no record
UA 445 United	DEN 16:03	MIA 22:05	26%	8%	0.6%	no record
F9 1280 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 18:55	MIA 00:52	27%	8%	0.8%	77%
WN 3404 Southwest	DEN 10:57	MIA 16:49	29%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 1310 American	DEN 12:23	MIA 18:30	34%	9%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON