Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3710 at 10:57 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 3710 DEN 10:57 → MKE 14:20 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4356 DEN 17:31 → MKE 20:46 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3710 Southwest	DEN 10:57	MKE 14:20	11%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 1836 United Flight history →	DEN 09:57	MKE 13:25	12%	3%	0.6%	87%
OO 4718 SkyWest	DEN 13:32	MKE 17:17	17%	6%	0.5%	no record
OO 560 SkyWest	DEN 17:48	MKE 21:10	23%	7%	0.6%	no record
WN 4356 Southwest	DEN 17:31	MKE 20:46	28%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON