Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 5438 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 11:15	MRY 13:10	15%	4%	0.5%	88%
UA 1822 United	DEN 19:15	MRY 20:53	25%	7%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Monterey on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Monterey is 1 h behind Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	DEN 13:26 → LAX 14:57UA 774	3h 45m Los Angeles	LAX 18:42 → MRY 20:02UA 5398 · flown by SkyWest	7h 36m	99%	87%
United Details →	DEN 08:00 → LAX 09:32UA 1638	3h 27m Los Angeles	LAX 12:59 → MRY 14:14UA 276	7h 14m	100%	81%
United Details →	DEN 13:25 → SFO 15:09UA 1812	2h 12m San Francisco	SFO 17:21 → MRY 18:34UA 5627 · flown by SkyWest	6h 09m	94%	78%
American Details →	DEN 05:00 → DFW 08:05AA 2612	2h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:11 → MRY 11:58AA 2879	7h 58m	98%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON