Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: UA 2368 at 10:57 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 2368 United Flight history →	DEN 10:57	MSN 14:07	13%	4%	0.5%	86%
UA 1894 United Flight history →	DEN 18:00	MSN 21:16	30%	8%	0.6%	71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Madison on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Madison is 1 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DEN 05:45 → ATL 10:44DL 341	1h 09m Atlanta	ATL 11:53 → MSN 12:54DL 2681	6h 09m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	DEN 16:08 → MSP 19:15DL 2271	2h 09m Minneapolis	MSP 21:24 → MSN 22:31DL 1599	5h 23m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	DEN 06:00 → MSP 09:00DL 1129	1h 12m Minneapolis	MSP 10:12 → MSN 11:19DL 4102 · flown by SkyWest	4h 19m	97%	84%
American Details →	DEN 07:01 → ORD 10:45AA 2771	3h 14m Chicago	ORD 13:59 → MSN 15:05AA 4038 · flown by Envoy	7h 04m	98%	82%
American Details →	DEN 10:46 → ORD 14:21AA 2559	2h 58m Chicago	ORD 17:19 → MSN 18:34AA 3953 · flown by Envoy	6h 48m	100%	77%
Delta Details →	DEN 14:10 → ATL 19:16DL 706	2h 16m Atlanta	ATL 21:32 → MSN 22:38DL 2144	7h 28m	96%	77%
United Details →	DEN 07:44 → ORD 11:21UA 1928	2h 53m Chicago	ORD 14:14 → MSN 15:10UA 1595	6h 26m	100%	75%
United Details →	DEN 06:00 → ORD 09:42UA 1377	3h 08m Chicago	ORD 12:50 → MSN 13:44UA 2349	6h 44m	99%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	DEN 13:21 → CLT 18:40AA 1662	1h 02m Charlotte	CLT 19:42 → MSN 20:59AA 1426	6h 38m	68%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON