Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: OO 723 at 07:38 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–27%.

Safest bet that day OO 723 DEN 07:38 → MSO 10:10 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1092 DEN 19:31 → MSO 21:40 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 723 SkyWest	DEN 07:38	MSO 10:10	12%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 2357 United Flight history →	DEN 11:31	MSO 13:39	15%	6%	0.6%	84%
OO 5535 SkyWest	DEN 14:05	MSO 16:36	16%	7%	0.7%	no record
UA 1092 United Flight history →	DEN 19:31	MSO 21:40	27%	8%	0.6%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON