Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 1129 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–23%.

Safest bet that day DL 1129 DEN 06:00 → MSP 09:00 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 2064 DEN 17:48 → MSP 20:44 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1129 Delta Flight history →	DEN 06:00	MSP 09:00	3%	2%	0.4%	91%
WN 2927 Southwest	DEN 06:57	MSP 10:00	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 2877 Delta Flight history →	DEN 08:42	MSP 11:42	7%	2%	0.4%	85%
F9 1292 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 21:11	MSP 00:22	8%	5%	0.6%	65%
UA 397 United Flight history →	DEN 09:40	MSP 12:40	9%	2%	0.5%	87%
F9 1150 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 10:35	MSP 13:45	10%	4%	0.7%	84%
DL 2271 Delta Flight history →	DEN 16:08	MSP 19:15	12%	5%	0.5%	72%
WN 4250 Southwest	DEN 11:02	MSP 14:05	13%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 732 United Flight history →	DEN 13:50	MSP 16:54	13%	4%	0.5%	84%
DL 2849 Delta Flight history →	DEN 11:10	MSP 14:10	14%	3%	0.4%	75%
UA 667 United Flight history →	DEN 20:54	MSP 23:59	15%	5%	0.5%	59%
UA 2076 United Flight history →	DEN 17:55	MSP 21:00	18%	6%	0.5%	76%
WN 2064 Southwest	DEN 17:48	MSP 20:44	23%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON