Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 454 at 09:37, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 454 United	DEN 09:37	MYR 14:56	13%	5%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Myrtle Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Myrtle Beach is 2 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DEN 00:59 → DTW 05:48DL 1096	2h 57m Detroit	DTW 08:45 → MYR 10:39DL 1145	7h 40m	97%	84%
United Details →	DEN 00:12 → EWR 05:42UA 1745	2h 12m Newark	EWR 07:54 → MYR 09:44UA 1067	7h 32m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	DEN 05:45 → ATL 10:44DL 341	3h 10m Atlanta	ATL 13:54 → MYR 15:14DL 3182	7h 29m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	DEN 00:40 → ATL 05:42DL 302	3h 50m Atlanta	ATL 09:32 → MYR 10:49DL 3047	8h 09m	100%	81%
United Details →	DEN 07:40 → EWR 13:27UA 2640	2h 24m Newark	EWR 15:51 → MYR 17:59UA 3589 · flown by Republic	8h 19m	98%	75%
Delta Details →	DEN 11:45 → ATL 16:49DL 346	3h 41m Atlanta	ATL 20:30 → MYR 21:49DL 3074	8h 04m	99%	74%
American Details →	DEN 06:41 → CLT 12:04AA 573	3h 54m Charlotte	CLT 15:58 → MYR 17:06AA 2943	8h 25m	99%	73%
American Details →	DEN 11:00 → CLT 16:18AA 3299	3h 50m Charlotte	CLT 20:08 → MYR 21:19AA 1085	8h 19m	100%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON