Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 5324 at 10:05 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 5324 DEN 10:05 → OKC 13:01 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 481 DEN 17:12 → OKC 19:51 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5324 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 10:05	OKC 13:01	12%	5%	0.5%	90%
WN 1702 Southwest	DEN 11:17	OKC 14:01	15%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 4102 Southwest	DEN 14:47	OKC 17:26	17%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 1656 United	DEN 13:25	OKC 16:10	18%	7%	0.6%	no record
F9 1928 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 15:54	OKC 18:31	20%	9%	4.6%	83%
UA 1184 United Flight history →	DEN 17:28	OKC 20:08	26%	10%	2.3%	70%
WN 481 Southwest	DEN 17:12	OKC 19:51	28%	8%	2.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON