Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1633 at 10:07 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–21%.

Safest bet that day UA 1633 DEN 10:07 → OMA 12:47 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4423 DEN 17:22 → OMA 20:01 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1633 United	DEN 10:07	OMA 12:47	10%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 274 Southwest	DEN 11:07	OMA 13:51	11%	2%	0.4%	no record
UA 1787 United Flight history →	DEN 21:05	OMA 23:43	14%	5%	0.5%	68%
UA 2327 United Flight history →	DEN 13:50	OMA 16:24	14%	4%	0.5%	84%
WN 1654 Southwest	DEN 14:57	OMA 17:31	14%	3%	0.4%	no record
UA 1436 United Flight history →	DEN 18:05	OMA 20:42	18%	7%	0.5%	66%
F9 1874 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 16:40	OMA 19:15	21%	8%	0.6%	71%
WN 4423 Southwest	DEN 17:22	OMA 20:01	21%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON