Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 2513 at 08:54 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 2513 DEN 08:54 → ONT 10:15 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1712 DEN 19:34 → ONT 20:57 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2513 Southwest	DEN 08:54	ONT 10:15	8%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 430 United Flight history →	DEN 11:25	ONT 12:47	14%	4%	0.6%	88%
F9 2907 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 08:45	ONT 10:04	14%	4%	0.6%	91%
F9 1261 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 22:29	ONT 23:50	18%	6%	0.6%	81%
WN 3282 Southwest	DEN 15:52	ONT 17:20	20%	4%	0.5%	no record
UA 2028 United Flight history →	DEN 19:20	ONT 20:42	25%	7%	0.6%	75%
WN 1712 Southwest	DEN 19:34	ONT 20:57	27%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON