Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 21 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1377 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 1377 DEN 06:00 → ORD 09:42 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 1277 DEN 14:27 → ORD 18:02 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1377 United Flight history →	DEN 06:00	ORD 09:42	6%	2%	0.6%	89%
UA 1928 United Flight history →	DEN 07:44	ORD 11:21	11%	4%	0.6%	92%
AA 2771 American Flight history →	DEN 07:01	ORD 10:45	13%	4%	0.7%	88%
UA 2430 United Flight history →	DEN 08:38	ORD 12:00	15%	5%	0.6%	88%
UA 2329 United Flight history →	DEN 09:35	ORD 13:15	15%	6%	0.6%	84%
AA 1229 American	DEN 08:18	ORD 11:53	19%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 2865 United Flight history →	DEN 11:15	ORD 14:55	19%	7%	0.6%	82%
MQ 3964 Envoy	DEN 09:14	ORD 12:52	20%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 377 United Flight history →	DEN 20:19	ORD 23:41	22%	7%	0.6%	80%
UA 2258 United Flight history →	DEN 19:10	ORD 22:49	22%	7%	0.6%	71%
F9 3174 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 20:58	ORD 00:36	23%	9%	1.1%	68%
AA 2559 American Flight history →	DEN 10:46	ORD 14:21	23%	9%	0.7%	83%
UA 617 United Flight history →	DEN 13:25	ORD 17:05	26%	9%	0.6%	68%
UA 1411 United Flight history →	DEN 18:00	ORD 21:39	28%	8%	0.6%	50%
UA 1023 United Flight history →	DEN 15:01	ORD 18:46	28%	9%	0.6%	61%
UA 675 United Flight history →	DEN 16:29	ORD 20:14	28%	9%	0.6%	58%
UA 2272 United	DEN 18:14	ORD 21:38	28%	9%	0.6%	no record
AA 2363 American Flight history →	DEN 12:29	ORD 16:04	29%	11%	0.7%	78%
UA 1131 United Flight history →	DEN 16:40	ORD 20:06	29%	9%	0.6%	71%
AA 1317 American	DEN 18:01	ORD 21:54	30%	9%	0.8%	no record
AA 1277 American	DEN 14:27	ORD 18:02	33%	10%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON