Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 20–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 540 Southwest	DEN 15:12	ORF 20:41	20%	6%	0.8%	no record
UA 680 United Flight history →	DEN 17:58	ORF 23:33	22%	7%	0.6%	71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Norfolk on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Norfolk is 2 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DEN 00:40 → ATL 05:42DL 302	2h 23m Atlanta	ATL 08:05 → ORF 09:46DL 2755	7h 06m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	DEN 11:10 → MSP 14:10DL 2849	1h 39m Minneapolis	MSP 15:49 → ORF 19:51DL 5518 · flown by Endeavor	6h 41m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	DEN 05:45 → ATL 10:44DL 341	1h 42m Atlanta	ATL 12:26 → ORF 14:06DL 2925	6h 21m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	DEN 07:15 → ATL 12:11DL 431	2h 31m Atlanta	ATL 14:42 → ORF 16:22DL 1101	7h 07m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	DEN 06:35 → JFK 12:27DL 336	2h 56m New York	JFK 15:23 → ORF 17:06DL 5395 · flown by Endeavor	8h 31m	99%	81%
United Details →	DEN 10:20 → IAD 15:53UA 2087	1h 52m Dulles	IAD 17:45 → ORF 19:00UA 278	6h 40m	96%	79%
United Details →	DEN 06:00 → ORD 09:42UA 1377	2h 25m Chicago	ORD 12:07 → ORF 15:24UA 2807	7h 24m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	DEN 15:00 → DTW 19:52DL 1648	1h 48m Detroit	DTW 21:40 → ORF 23:32DL 412	6h 32m	93%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	DEN 07:44 → ORD 11:21UA 1928	46m Chicago	ORD 12:07 → ORF 15:24UA 2807	5h 40m	73%	58%
American Details →	DEN 13:05 → PHL 19:00AA 2491	47m Philadelphia	PHL 19:47 → ORF 21:27AA 5375 · flown by PSA	6h 22m	64%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON