Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3459 at 08:52 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 3459 DEN 08:52 → PDX 10:46 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3450 DEN 19:34 → PDX 21:21 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3459 Southwest	DEN 08:52	PDX 10:46	7%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 1247 United Flight history →	DEN 08:05	PDX 09:47	8%	2%	0.6%	88%
UA 644 United Flight history →	DEN 11:16	PDX 12:58	13%	5%	0.6%	84%
AS 1316 Alaska	DEN 08:07	PDX 09:49	14%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 8255 United	DEN 13:29	PDX 15:15	15%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 1337 United Flight history →	DEN 16:00	PDX 17:46	16%	6%	0.6%	84%
WN 362 Southwest	DEN 13:02	PDX 14:51	18%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 498 United Flight history →	DEN 19:30	PDX 21:15	18%	6%	0.6%	80%
WN 332 Southwest	DEN 16:42	PDX 18:36	21%	4%	0.5%	no record
AS 1372 Alaska	DEN 15:04	PDX 16:46	22%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 3450 Southwest	DEN 19:34	PDX 21:21	26%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON