Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 516 at 07:01 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 516 DEN 07:01 → PHL 12:48 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 4253 DEN 17:42 → PHL 23:18 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 516 American Flight history →	DEN 07:01	PHL 12:48	11%	3%	0.6%	91%
UA 1575 United Flight history →	DEN 09:35	PHL 15:08	12%	4%	0.6%	88%
UA 2787 United	DEN 13:53	PHL 19:36	18%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 1510 United Flight history →	DEN 17:52	PHL 23:28	21%	8%	0.6%	58%
AA 811 American	DEN 10:31	PHL 16:22	24%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 2491 American Flight history →	DEN 13:05	PHL 19:00	24%	7%	0.6%	73%
WN 1393 Southwest	DEN 11:32	PHL 16:55	25%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 4253 Southwest	DEN 17:42	PHL 23:18	29%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON