Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 4256 at 05:57 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 4256 DEN 05:57 → PHX 06:48 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1733 DEN 17:27 → PHX 18:28 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4256 Southwest	DEN 05:57	PHX 06:48	3%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 1383 Southwest	DEN 07:57	PHX 09:13	6%	1%	0.7%	no record
F9 1375 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 06:46	PHX 07:53	7%	3%	0.7%	84%
WN 1728 Southwest	DEN 08:57	PHX 09:58	8%	1%	0.7%	no record
AA 1404 American Flight history →	DEN 07:13	PHX 08:08	13%	5%	0.8%	80%
UA 1481 United Flight history →	DEN 08:00	PHX 09:00	13%	4%	0.6%	84%
UA 1686 United Flight history →	DEN 11:25	PHX 12:25	16%	5%	0.6%	87%
UA 1254 United Flight history →	DEN 15:35	PHX 16:35	16%	7%	0.6%	82%
F9 2105 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 13:16	PHX 14:18	16%	6%	0.7%	85%
WN 3072 Southwest	DEN 14:57	PHX 15:58	17%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 631 United Flight history →	DEN 13:18	PHX 14:12	17%	7%	0.6%	88%
WN 1730 Southwest	DEN 13:57	PHX 15:03	18%	3%	0.7%	no record
F9 4753 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 22:36	PHX 23:32	18%	7%	0.9%	68%
F9 4765 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 18:45	PHX 19:53	18%	7%	0.7%	69%
WN 1734 Southwest	DEN 18:32	PHX 19:38	19%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 2602 American Flight history →	DEN 12:16	PHX 13:06	22%	7%	0.6%	36%
UA 1507 United	DEN 19:06	PHX 20:01	22%	8%	0.6%	no record
WN 1516 Southwest	DEN 19:30	PHX 20:25	23%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 1733 Southwest	DEN 17:27	PHX 18:28	24%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON