Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 1737 at 19:04, with a 31% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 1737 United	DEN 19:04	PSC 20:30	31%	6%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pasco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pasco is 1 h behind Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DEN 07:05 → SLC 08:36DL 1581	2h 19m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:55 → PSC 11:44DL 3892 · flown by SkyWest	5h 39m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	DEN 12:45 → SLC 14:20DL 1553	1h 32m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:52 → PSC 16:38DL 3728 · flown by SkyWest	4h 53m	95%	84%
Delta Details →	DEN 18:11 → SLC 19:48DL 1623	1h 42m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:30 → PSC 22:10DL 1712	4h 59m	90%	78%
Delta Details →	DEN 06:30 → SEA 08:26DL 1731	2h 09m Seattle	SEA 10:35 → PSC 11:43DL 3992 · flown by SkyWest	6h 13m	98%	74%
Delta Details →	DEN 18:39 → SEA 20:41DL 2543	2h 04m Seattle	SEA 22:45 → PSC 23:53DL 4017 · flown by SkyWest	6h 14m	87%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON