Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 687 at 11:18 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–27%.

Safest bet that day UA 687 DEN 11:18 → PSP 12:38 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3651 DEN 19:29 → PSP 20:44 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 687 United	DEN 11:18	PSP 12:38	15%	6%	0.6%	no record
OO 305 SkyWest	DEN 16:02	PSP 17:25	17%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 2644 United Flight history →	DEN 19:14	PSP 20:28	24%	8%	0.7%	74%
WN 3651 Southwest	DEN 19:29	PSP 20:44	27%	6%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON