Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 5303 at 20:59 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–24%.

Safest bet that day UA 5303 DEN 20:59 → RAP 22:17 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest UA 2781 DEN 19:10 → RAP 20:24 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 37% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5303 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 20:59	RAP 22:17	11%	5%	0.7%	81%
UA 4674 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 10:40	RAP 12:08	13%	4%	0.6%	81%
UA 5891 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 14:35	RAP 15:59	14%	5%	0.7%	74%
UA 5225 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 17:55	RAP 19:24	17%	7%	0.7%	53%
UA 1585 United	DEN 11:20	RAP 12:33	18%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 2781 United Flight history →	DEN 19:10	RAP 20:24	24%	9%	0.6%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON