Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 2269 at 09:49 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–33%.

Safest bet that day UA 2269 DEN 09:49 → RDU 15:16 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest WN 1746 DEN 17:47 → RDU 23:11 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2269 United Flight history →	DEN 09:49	RDU 15:16	11%	3%	0.6%	89%
F9 2440 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 11:45	RDU 17:14	16%	4%	0.8%	87%
UA 2671 United Flight history →	DEN 17:45	RDU 23:16	23%	6%	0.6%	77%
WN 1746 Southwest	DEN 17:47	RDU 23:11	33%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON