Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 18–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 1747 Southwest	DEN 12:32	RIC 17:54	18%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1534 United Flight history →	DEN 17:50	RIC 23:25	23%	5%	0.6%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Richmond on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Richmond is 2 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DEN 08:42 → MSP 11:42DL 2877	3h 47m Minneapolis	MSP 15:29 → RIC 19:21DL 5530 · flown by Endeavor	8h 39m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	DEN 00:40 → ATL 05:42DL 302	3h 58m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → RIC 11:19DL 2650	8h 39m	100%	88%
United Details →	DEN 07:44 → ORD 11:21UA 1928	3h 09m Chicago	ORD 14:30 → RIC 17:49UA 3523 · flown by Republic	8h 05m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	DEN 05:45 → ATL 10:44DL 341	3h 01m Atlanta	ATL 13:45 → RIC 15:20DL 3152	7h 35m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	DEN 06:35 → JFK 12:27DL 336	2h 16m New York	JFK 14:43 → RIC 16:32DL 5301 · flown by Endeavor	7h 57m	99%	84%
United Details →	DEN 06:00 → EWR 11:49UA 2345	3h 26m Newark	EWR 15:15 → RIC 16:56UA 3639 · flown by Republic	8h 56m	100%	83%
United Details →	DEN 05:00 → IAH 08:32UA 320	3h 39m Houston	IAH 12:11 → RIC 16:13UA 4057 · flown by Mesa	9h 13m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	DEN 07:15 → ATL 12:11DL 431	3h 38m Atlanta	ATL 15:49 → RIC 17:30DL 1214	8h 15m	99%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	DEN 15:38 → CLT 20:57AA 1283	53m Charlotte	CLT 21:50 → RIC 23:04AA 993	5h 26m	65%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON