Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 743 at 08:47 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 743 DEN 08:47 → RNO 10:15 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3773 DEN 19:34 → RNO 20:55 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 743 Southwest	DEN 08:47	RNO 10:15	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
OO 5335 SkyWest	DEN 08:21	RNO 10:05	11%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 2167 United Flight history →	DEN 11:20	RNO 12:39	15%	5%	0.5%	87%
UA 1604 United Flight history →	DEN 16:10	RNO 17:36	16%	7%	0.5%	85%
WN 669 Southwest	DEN 14:17	RNO 15:45	18%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 719 United Flight history →	DEN 19:25	RNO 20:50	22%	7%	0.5%	69%
WN 3773 Southwest	DEN 19:34	RNO 20:55	23%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON