Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 2601 at 09:35 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 2601 DEN 09:35 → RSW 15:20 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 256 DEN 11:52 → RSW 17:35 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2601 United Flight history →	DEN 09:35	RSW 15:20	15%	4%	1.1%	90%
UA 572 United	DEN 16:16	RSW 21:58	17%	8%	0.9%	no record
WN 256 Southwest	DEN 11:52	RSW 17:35	25%	6%	1.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON