Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 2391 at 06:25 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 2391 DEN 06:25 → SAN 07:52 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3408 DEN 19:39 → SAN 21:02 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2391 Southwest	DEN 06:25	SAN 07:52	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 2309 United Flight history →	DEN 07:40	SAN 09:02	13%	4%	0.6%	90%
F9 2817 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 15:34	SAN 17:10	20%	6%	0.9%	83%
WN 1756 Southwest	DEN 13:07	SAN 14:45	21%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 1896 Southwest	DEN 13:12	SAN 14:50	21%	4%	0.6%	no record
F9 2711 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 22:28	SAN 00:03	21%	6%	1.2%	81%
UA 1302 United Flight history →	DEN 13:30	SAN 14:55	21%	7%	0.6%	87%
UA 1940 United Flight history →	DEN 11:15	SAN 12:41	23%	8%	0.6%	82%
UA 1281 United Flight history →	DEN 15:55	SAN 17:20	23%	8%	0.6%	85%
AS 1342 Alaska	DEN 12:45	SAN 14:01	25%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 540 United Flight history →	DEN 19:20	SAN 20:46	26%	8%	0.6%	65%
WN 205 Southwest	DEN 16:12	SAN 17:50	26%	6%	0.6%	no record
AS 636 Alaska	DEN 19:57	SAN 21:12	30%	6%	0.8%	no record
WN 3408 Southwest	DEN 19:39	SAN 21:02	31%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON