Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 2625 at 09:35 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 2625 DEN 09:35 → SAT 12:43 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 4678 DEN 17:07 → SAT 20:20 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2625 United Flight history →	DEN 09:35	SAT 12:43	10%	3%	0.5%	92%
WN 365 Southwest	DEN 10:57	SAT 14:15	10%	2%	0.4%	no record
UA 1022 United Flight history →	DEN 13:44	SAT 16:55	14%	6%	0.5%	90%
OO 5598 SkyWest	DEN 20:29	SAT 00:21	15%	7%	0.6%	no record
WN 3344 Southwest	DEN 13:02	SAT 16:15	16%	3%	0.4%	no record
F9 2356 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 15:30	SAT 18:44	18%	6%	0.6%	82%
UA 8131 United	DEN 17:34	SAT 20:50	21%	9%	0.5%	no record
WN 4678 Southwest	DEN 17:07	SAT 20:20	25%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON