Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 15 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 1731 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–47%.

Safest bet that day DL 1731 DEN 06:30 → SEA 08:26 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 4358 DEN 19:34 → SEA 21:22 · 47% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1731 Delta Flight history →	DEN 06:30	SEA 08:26	7%	2%	0.6%	91%
WN 4392 Southwest	DEN 09:22	SEA 11:26	19%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 1358 Delta Flight history →	DEN 13:03	SEA 15:05	21%	5%	0.6%	80%
F9 1175 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 13:02	SEA 15:08	21%	6%	0.8%	81%
UA 1348 United	DEN 08:01	SEA 10:03	25%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 2058 United	DEN 11:25	SEA 13:24	25%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 2013 United Flight history →	DEN 15:58	SEA 17:59	25%	8%	0.6%	80%
AS 1678 Alaska	DEN 15:28	SEA 17:14	26%	7%	0.6%	no record
AS 682 Alaska Flight history →	DEN 11:57	SEA 13:44	30%	5%	0.6%	83%worse than usual
WN 3766 Southwest	DEN 14:32	SEA 16:36	30%	5%	0.5%	no record
AS 317 Alaska Flight history →	DEN 08:40	SEA 10:42	32%	4%	0.7%	84%worse than usual
DL 2543 Delta Flight history →	DEN 18:39	SEA 20:41	33%	7%	0.6%	57%
AS 1429 Alaska	DEN 17:55	SEA 19:41	40%	8%	0.7%	no record
UA 2767 United	DEN 19:07	SEA 20:56	41%	8%	0.6%	no record
WN 4358 Southwest	DEN 19:34	SEA 21:22	47%	8%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON