Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1775 at 08:47 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 1775 DEN 08:47 → SJC 10:36 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1386 DEN 19:34 → SJC 21:13 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1775 Southwest	DEN 08:47	SJC 10:36	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 1256 United	DEN 11:33	SJC 13:17	15%	6%	0.5%	no record
WN 1777 Southwest	DEN 14:23	SJC 16:00	19%	3%	0.5%	no record
DL 8846 Delta	DEN 15:54	SJC 17:34	20%	6%	0.8%	no record
UA 2745 United Flight history →	DEN 19:30	SJC 21:10	21%	8%	0.5%	76%
WN 1386 Southwest	DEN 19:34	SJC 21:13	26%	4%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON