Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 19 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3502 at 08:47 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 3502 DEN 08:47 → SLC 10:24 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2769 DEN 19:23 → SLC 20:56 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3502 Southwest	DEN 08:47	SLC 10:24	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 1581 Delta Flight history →	DEN 07:05	SLC 08:36	7%	3%	0.4%	92%
DL 2544 Delta Flight history →	DEN 08:15	SLC 09:51	8%	3%	0.4%	87%
F9 3219 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 09:35	SLC 11:19	9%	3%	0.6%	83%
UA 497 United Flight history →	DEN 07:55	SLC 09:24	9%	3%	0.5%	90%
UA 5646 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 21:05	SLC 22:44	10%	5%	0.6%	80%
WN 1808 Southwest	DEN 12:22	SLC 13:59	14%	3%	0.5%	no record
OO 4787 SkyWest	DEN 16:33	SLC 18:25	15%	8%	0.5%	no record
DL 1317 Delta	DEN 10:27	SLC 11:59	15%	3%	0.4%	no record
F9 3861 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 13:45	SLC 15:31	15%	5%	0.6%	96%worse than usual
DL 1553 Delta Flight history →	DEN 12:45	SLC 14:20	16%	5%	0.4%	84%
F9 4251 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 22:13	SLC 23:44	16%	5%	0.6%	71%
WN 410 Southwest	DEN 16:17	SLC 17:54	18%	5%	0.5%	no record
DL 1623 Delta Flight history →	DEN 18:11	SLC 19:48	19%	5%	0.4%	84%
UA 1963 United Flight history →	DEN 11:45	SLC 13:18	19%	5%	0.5%	80%
OO 449 SkyWest	DEN 18:12	SLC 19:46	19%	7%	0.5%	no record
UA 1840 United Flight history →	DEN 13:50	SLC 15:23	20%	6%	0.5%	84%
WN 4270 Southwest	DEN 19:39	SLC 21:09	26%	5%	0.5%	no record
UA 2769 United Flight history →	DEN 19:23	SLC 20:56	26%	7%	0.5%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON