Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1787 at 08:47 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 1787 DEN 08:47 → SMF 10:25 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1791 DEN 19:34 → SMF 21:07 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1787 Southwest	DEN 08:47	SMF 10:25	7%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 2149 United Flight history →	DEN 08:00	SMF 09:34	8%	2%	0.5%	94%
UA 2673 United	DEN 11:46	SMF 13:25	17%	6%	0.5%	no record
UA 662 United Flight history →	DEN 13:42	SMF 15:17	19%	5%	0.5%	83%
WN 4393 Southwest	DEN 12:57	SMF 14:40	19%	3%	0.5%	no record
F9 3665 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 09:01	SMF 10:35	19%	4%	0.6%	82%
UA 1208 United Flight history →	DEN 15:58	SMF 17:35	20%	7%	0.5%	82%
UA 2132 United Flight history →	DEN 19:37	SMF 21:12	24%	7%	0.5%	74%
WN 1790 Southwest	DEN 17:12	SMF 18:50	30%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 1791 Southwest	DEN 19:34	SMF 21:07	33%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON