Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3124 at 08:57 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–20%.

Safest bet that day WN 3124 DEN 08:57 → SNA 10:36 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2653 DEN 19:34 → SNA 20:54 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3124 Southwest	DEN 08:57	SNA 10:36	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 2666 United Flight history →	DEN 07:40	SNA 09:07	8%	2%	0.6%	95%
UA 1707 United Flight history →	DEN 13:25	SNA 14:56	13%	5%	0.6%	86%
UA 1320 United Flight history →	DEN 11:25	SNA 12:56	14%	5%	0.6%	88%
UA 1704 United Flight history →	DEN 19:10	SNA 20:40	14%	5%	0.6%	75%
UA 1497 United	DEN 16:05	SNA 17:29	18%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 2653 Southwest	DEN 19:34	SNA 20:54	20%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON