Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1796 at 06:32 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 1796 DEN 06:32 → STL 09:40 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1567 DEN 17:22 → STL 20:30 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1796 Southwest	DEN 06:32	STL 09:40	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 652 United Flight history →	DEN 09:35	STL 12:42	12%	3%	0.5%	84%
F9 3302 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 16:10	STL 19:23	16%	5%	0.6%	85%
OO 4733 SkyWest	DEN 20:24	STL 23:39	16%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 1639 United Flight history →	DEN 13:25	STL 16:33	17%	4%	0.5%	87%
WN 4400 Southwest	DEN 15:32	STL 18:35	18%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 1798 Southwest	DEN 11:22	STL 14:35	18%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 1422 United Flight history →	DEN 17:34	STL 20:43	24%	6%	0.5%	72%
WN 1567 Southwest	DEN 17:22	STL 20:30	26%	4%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON