Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 17–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


OO 717 SkyWest	DEN 12:19	SUN 14:16	17%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 5734 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 19:25	SUN 21:26	18%	5%	0.6%	64%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hailey on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DEN 08:15 → SLC 09:51DL 2544	3h 34m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:25 → SUN 14:31DL 3689 · flown by SkyWest	6h 16m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	DEN 18:11 → SLC 19:48DL 1623	1h 17m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:05 → SUN 22:07DL 3985 · flown by SkyWest	3h 56m	85%	79%
United Details →	DEN 15:47 → SFO 17:30UA 2633	1h 25m San Francisco	SFO 18:55 → SUN 21:51UA 5986 · flown by SkyWest	6h 04m	86%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON