Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1807 at 05:46 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–34%.

Safest bet that day WN 1807 DEN 05:46 → TPA 11:11 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1809 DEN 17:27 → TPA 22:55 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1807 Southwest	DEN 05:46	TPA 11:11	5%	1%	1.5%	no record
UA 1010 United Flight history →	DEN 09:40	TPA 15:14	13%	3%	1.1%	89%
UA 2375 United Flight history →	DEN 13:35	TPA 19:13	16%	5%	1.0%	86%
WN 2055 Southwest	DEN 10:57	TPA 16:25	18%	3%	1.3%	no record
F9 2748 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 11:22	TPA 16:57	19%	4%	2.0%	86%
F9 2746 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 18:59	TPA 00:43	23%	7%	1.9%	77%
F9 9504 Frontier	DEN 18:14	TPA 23:53	24%	7%	1.9%	no record
UA 1961 United Flight history →	DEN 17:39	TPA 23:17	25%	6%	0.9%	71%
WN 1809 Southwest	DEN 17:27	TPA 22:55	34%	5%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON