Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 126 at 10:57 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–29%.

Safest bet that day WN 126 DEN 10:57 → TUL 13:41 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1813 DEN 17:07 → TUL 19:51 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 126 Southwest	DEN 10:57	TUL 13:41	12%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 5315 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 10:05	TUL 13:00	13%	4%	0.5%	88%
UA 4712 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 20:55	TUL 23:47	14%	6%	0.6%	81%
UA 5311 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 13:40	TUL 16:29	15%	5%	0.6%	90%
UA 1937 United Flight history →	DEN 17:35	TUL 20:25	25%	7%	0.7%	80%
WN 1813 Southwest	DEN 17:07	TUL 19:51	29%	6%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON