Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1817 at 08:49 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 1817 DEN 08:49 → TUS 09:51 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1762 DEN 19:10 → TUS 20:12 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1817 Southwest	DEN 08:49	TUS 09:51	8%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1821 Southwest	DEN 14:02	TUS 15:11	18%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 1188 United Flight history →	DEN 11:30	TUS 12:32	19%	5%	0.6%	86%
UA 2049 United	DEN 15:43	TUS 16:46	20%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 1823 Southwest	DEN 19:34	TUS 20:38	29%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 1762 United Flight history →	DEN 19:10	TUS 20:12	33%	8%	0.6%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON