Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 2420 at 09:47, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 2420 United Flight history →	DEN 09:47	TVC 14:24	17%	4%	0.6%	91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Traverse City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Traverse City is 2 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DEN 06:00 → MSP 09:00DL 1129	1h 29m Minneapolis	MSP 10:29 → TVC 13:04DL 3995 · flown by SkyWest	5h 04m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	DEN 15:00 → DTW 19:52DL 1648	1h 38m Detroit	DTW 21:30 → TVC 22:41DL 2424	5h 41m	92%	72%
American Details →	DEN 07:01 → ORD 10:45AA 2771	1h 27m Chicago	ORD 12:12 → TVC 14:32AA 6368 · flown by SkyWest	5h 31m	93%	68%
United Details →	DEN 15:01 → ORD 18:46UA 1023	2h 37m Chicago	ORD 21:23 → TVC 23:29UA 2071	6h 28m	95%	59%
United Details →	DEN 13:25 → ORD 17:05UA 617	3h 09m Chicago	ORD 20:14 → TVC 22:25UA 677	7h 00m	96%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON