Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: OO 499 at 07:53 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–25%.

Safest bet that day OO 499 DEN 07:53 → XNA 10:54 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1351 DEN 17:50 → XNA 20:48 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 499 SkyWest	DEN 07:53	XNA 10:54	11%	4%	0.6%	no record
OO 4805 SkyWest	DEN 20:45	XNA 23:51	14%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 5267 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 09:50	XNA 12:47	15%	5%	0.6%	87%
UA 5641 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 13:30	XNA 16:25	16%	7%	0.6%	89%
UA 1351 United Flight history →	DEN 17:50	XNA 20:48	25%	9%	0.6%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON