Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 3535 at 08:57 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–44%.

Safest bet that day AA 3535 DFW 08:57 → ABQ 09:49 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest AA 1321 DFW 21:24 → ABQ 22:23 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 31% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3535 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 08:57	ABQ 09:49	14%	3%	1.1%	80%
AA 3586 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 10:52	ABQ 11:46	17%	3%	1.0%	83%
AA 3777 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 13:06	ABQ 13:56	17%	4%	1.2%	76%
AA 3053 American	DFW 14:27	ABQ 15:22	30%	12%	1.4%	no record
AA 9 American Flight history →	DFW 16:03	ABQ 16:59	35%	14%	2.0%	64%
AA 2698 American Flight history →	DFW 17:31	ABQ 18:25	40%	15%	2.2%	57%
AA 1321 American Flight history →	DFW 21:24	ABQ 22:23	44%	22%	12.1%	31%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON