Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:20, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Albany on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Albany on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Albany is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DFW 05:20 → ATL 08:34DL 401	2h 31m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → ALB 13:28DL 1137	7h 08m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	DFW 05:20 → DTW 09:04DL 2183	1h 01m Detroit	DTW 10:05 → ALB 11:47DL 5522 · flown by Endeavor	5h 26m	94%	83%
American Details →	DFW 05:00 → CLT 08:41AA 1091	1h 45m Charlotte	CLT 10:26 → ALB 12:32AA 710	6h 32m	97%	81%
American Details →	DFW 07:30 → PHL 11:52AA 415	1h 13m Philadelphia	PHL 13:05 → ALB 14:29AA 6028 · flown by Piedmont	6h 01m	90%	77%
Delta Details →	DFW 15:10 → DTW 18:54DL 735	2h 51m Detroit	DTW 21:45 → ALB 23:21DL 2660	7h 11m	94%	77%
American Details →	DFW 07:00 → CLT 10:44AA 317	3h 37m Charlotte	CLT 14:21 → ALB 16:29AA 1075	8h 29m	99%	77%
United Details →	DFW 07:08 → ORD 09:50UA 1695	2h 12m Chicago	ORD 12:02 → ALB 14:59UA 2792	6h 51m	98%	74%
American Details →	DFW 11:55 → CLT 15:36AA 1696	3h 59m Charlotte	CLT 19:35 → ALB 21:43AA 589	8h 48m	99%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	DFW 11:30 → ORD 13:58AA 1285	1h 06m Chicago	ORD 15:04 → ALB 18:16AA 4240 · flown by Envoy	5h 46m	72%	56%
American Details →	DFW 16:09 → PHL 20:42AA 1945	1h 08m Philadelphia	PHL 21:50 → ALB 23:23AA 5877 · flown by Piedmont	6h 14m	71%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON