Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 3920 at 08:38 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–44%.

Safest bet that day AA 3920 DFW 08:38 → AMA 10:00 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 2265 DFW 21:19 → AMA 22:40 · 44% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3920 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 08:38	AMA 10:00	9%	2%	1.3%	91%
MQ 3337 Envoy	DFW 10:56	AMA 12:19	12%	3%	1.4%	no record
AA 3383 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 13:19	AMA 14:37	17%	5%	1.7%	86%
AA 3613 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 14:32	AMA 15:50	20%	6%	2.6%	84%
AA 3789 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 17:23	AMA 18:42	23%	9%	4.8%	80%
AA 3607 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 20:07	AMA 21:28	24%	10%	3.8%	73%
AA 3990 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 18:57	AMA 20:15	26%	9%	4.2%	67%
AA 2265 American	DFW 21:19	AMA 22:40	44%	23%	10.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON