Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Seattle, leaving 06:30, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 399 American Flight history →	DFW 15:15	ANC 19:23	30%	11%	0.9%	73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 3 h behind Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DFW 06:30 → SEA 08:46DL 804	1h 49m Seattle	SEA 10:35 → ANC 13:17DL 922	9h 47m	97%	74%
United Details →	DFW 10:33 → ORD 13:02UA 1634	3h 17m Chicago	ORD 16:19 → ANC 19:53UA 461	12h 20m	96%	70%
Alaska Details →	DFW 06:24 → SEA 08:45AS 543	3h 00m Seattle	SEA 11:45 → ANC 14:40AS 1333	11h 16m	99%	68%
American Details →	DFW 11:30 → ORD 13:58AA 1285	2h 57m Chicago	ORD 16:55 → ANC 20:59AA 375	12h 29m	95%	65%
Alaska Details →	DFW 09:00 → SEA 11:20AS 365	1h 55m Seattle	SEA 13:15 → ANC 15:57AS 1381	9h 57m	96%	63%
Delta Details →	DFW 11:10 → ATL 14:14DL 961	1h 01m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → ANC 18:48DL 416	10h 38m	81%	62%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	DFW 13:10 → ORD 15:51AA 2988	1h 04m Chicago	ORD 16:55 → ANC 20:59AA 375	10h 49m	69%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON