Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 401 at 05:20 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–45%.

Safest bet that day DL 401 DFW 05:20 → ATL 08:34 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 3212 DFW 17:30 → ATL 20:49 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 401 Delta Flight history →	DFW 05:20	ATL 08:34	7%	3%	0.8%	92%
DL 893 Delta Flight history →	DFW 06:45	ATL 09:59	10%	3%	0.8%	92%
DL 414 Delta Flight history →	DFW 13:42	ATL 17:04	16%	5%	0.7%	80%
DL 961 Delta Flight history →	DFW 11:10	ATL 14:14	19%	4%	0.8%	86%
AA 1276 American Flight history →	DFW 08:01	ATL 11:18	21%	5%	1.0%	89%
DL 374 Delta Flight history →	DFW 18:37	ATL 22:00	28%	12%	2.8%	73%
DL 1827 Delta	DFW 19:51	ATL 22:58	28%	11%	2.0%	no record
AA 3104 American Flight history →	DFW 11:01	ATL 14:16	31%	7%	1.0%	82%worse than usual
AA 2398 American	DFW 13:25	ATL 16:43	31%	9%	1.0%	no record
F9 3022 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 19:58	ATL 23:07	38%	16%	3.5%	76%worse than usual
F9 2496 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 16:16	ATL 19:50	40%	17%	4.3%	50%
AA 2403 American Flight history →	DFW 16:06	ATL 19:26	40%	17%	2.5%	66%
AA 3212 American Flight history →	DFW 17:30	ATL 20:49	45%	17%	3.7%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON